Dunkin' Brands makes a splash with IPO. Who will be looking to own it? |
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29 Jul 2011 |
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The IPO of Dunkin' Brands Group Inc. Tuesday was priced at $19 a share, selling around $425 million in stock in the biggest IPO of the week. Investors scooped up shares Wednesday, sending them up as much as 56 percent on their first day of trading. Dunkin's new market value of more than $3.5 billion falls far short of rivals McDonald's Corp and Starbucks Corp, but with a 20-year target for 15,000 U.S. stores, Dunkin' looks to surpass Starbucks’ 11,000 outlets and gain traction on McDonald’s 14,000 U.S. restaurants. So far, we know private-equity firms Bain Capital Partners LLC, Carlyle Group and Thomas H. Lee Partners, which bought Dunkin' in 2006, will maintain a controlling interest. But who else will want in? Using FactSet Ownership, we can examine Dunkin’s comparable securities to understand who would be likely investors based on peer analysis, including top holders of Starbucks and McDonalds. Will these also be the top holders of Dunkin'? Capital Research Global Investors does not hold any position in Starbucks; will they buy shares of Dunkin'? Similarly, Sands Capital does not hold any shares of McDonalds, but will they purchase shares?  Fidelity, however, holds large positions in both securities (greater than 4% in each security). How much will they invest in Dunkin'? Over time, their overall positions in both the Consumer Service sector and Restaurant Industry have slightly increased.  While SBUX and MCD are first to mind as competitors of Dunkin', we should consider the types of Insiders and Institutions that hold other smaller coffee retailers around the world. Shown here are other securities that fall into the Roasted Coffee Industry (GICS Ind) both in the U.S. and abroad. Insiders hold a large position in Caribou, while Peet’s insider exposure is fairly small. How will Dunkin’s insider ownership play out? How much of a stake will Capital Partners LLC, Carlyle Group and Thomas H. Lee Partners have in Dunkin' post IPO?  Click any image to enlarge.
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