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FactSet Outlook: Summary of Strategy Meeting
Thursday, February 07, 2008
Strategic paper written by Jean Luc Buchalet/Pierre Sabatier and Jacques Chahine
On January 30 and 31, 2008, Jean Luc Buchalet and Jacques Chahine presented in Paris and Geneva on their projections for the future of the global economy. In this week's Outlook paper, you will find a summary of their presentations.
Which sectors for which markets? Recap of the global economic outlook presented by Jean Luc Buchalet and Jacques Chahine, 30-31 January 2008.
An 80% chance of US recession.
The outlook for the US economy is deteriorating, with a whole series of disappointing indicators released over the past few weeks. The manufacturing ISM index has fallen below the 50 barrier for the first time since 2003, thereby signalling a contraction in activity in the sector. The new orders component of the index has not been as depressed since the 2001 recession. The drop in retail sales in December suggests a sharper deceleration in American consumption in the coming months.
Among other leading indicators, we note that the Conference Board index has performed worse over the past six months than at any time since the 1991 recession, and by far more than during the 1994 mid-cycle dip.
Read the complete FactSet Outlook Paper >>
Quels secteurs pour quels marchés ?
Du côté des indicateurs avancés, qui tentent de prédire l’orientation de l’économie sur une période de 6 à 12 mois, la tendance ne varie pas : l’indicateur avancé du Conference Board de la Fed affiche sa pire performance sur 6 mois depuis le dernier retournement de la conjoncture de 1991 et se distingue clairement du ralentissement de mi-cycle de 1994.
